I may be dead next year
Anon writes: I was recently diagnosed with lung cancer. I'll probably be dead by next year. Think about it ...
posted by Simon Clark @ 09:47
4 comments
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4 Comments:
I sympathise with you. My brother-in-law received the same news and is now lost to us. He was a non-smoker.
Being diagnosed with lung cancer is not in itself an argument for or against smoking. It is simply a fact.
According to research carried out by Professor Sir Richard Doll, people who smoke from the age of 15 to 30 (ie 15 years) have a 2% chance of getting lung cancer. Smoke from 15 until you are 50 and the risk rises to 8%. Smoke from 15-70 (ie 55 years) and the risk is 16%.
No-one disputes that lung cancer is a terrible disease and I sympathise with anyone who gets it. But that does not justify a ban on smoking in all public places!! So long as people know the risks (and I do) they should be allowed to take their chances. That's life.
Dear Anon, it is impossible not to sympathise with your situation. Howevever you don't say whether you are a smoker or non-smoker. If you are a smoker you must have been aware of the risks of smoking. If you are a non-smoker the chances of your getting lung cancer from passive smoking are very small indeed.
The antis say that non-smokers regularly exposed to secondhand smoke have a 25-30% increased risk of lung cancer. This sounds alarming but the reality is that the risk of non-smokers getting lung cancer (without being exposed to SHS) is so small that an increased risk of 25-30% on what is a tiny risk in the first place is "statistically insignificant".
In other words, if you are a non-smoker and have got lung cancer it is very hard to blame other people's tobacco smoke and, as Peter says, if there is a risk it doesn't justify a total ban on smoking in all public places.
Apparently the risk of lung cancer is more like 8%- 10% for a lifetime smoker:
http://www.data-yard.net/10c/siepmann1.htm
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